Yay, it's NFL time! There's a whole bunch of non-football stuff going on that I should probably be talking about, but dammit, I love the game, so I'm going to talk about that.
I'm going to start with my team picks, and I'm going all out on this. I've printed off the entire NFL schedule, and I've gone through it picking every single game this season to compile my predicted records for each team. I've never done this before, so let's see what happens! I'll start by breaking down each division and explaining my thoughts on each team and what they're going to struggle with. Bring it on!
Fun note, I wrote down my thoughts on each division, then went through the season schedule. You may notice some discrepancies between my opinion and the win/loss total.
Except the end. That's been my champ for a while.
AFC East
Quite possibly the worst division in football - the AFC South is also in the running - New England is going to run away with this division *again* because everybody else sucks.
NE - 9-7
BUFF - 7-9
NYJ - 4-12
MIA - 2-14
AFC North
Hopefully this winds up being the most interesting division in football this year, as I really hope the hype around Cleveland getting better is real. I'm not expecting the Browns to make the playoffs, but I am expecting them to at least be competitive. The Bengals are in free fall, Baltimore may possibly be in rebuild mode, and Pittsburgh could be without Le'veon Bell for who knows how long.
PITT - 11-5
CLE - 11-5
CIN - 8-8
BAL - 7-9
AFC South
Another dumpster fire division! If Deshaun Watson stays healthy, Houston runs away with this division. I know Jacksonville turned a big corner last year, but they still have Bortles behind center, and that's not good. I have no faith in Tennessee, and Indy is still going to be bad, no matter what Luck does.
HOU - 12-4
TENN - 11-5
JAX - 10-6
IND - 3-13
AFC West
This division is intriguing. If the Chargers decide to not give away games in the last two minutes of games, they should run away with this. Denver is in full rebuild mode, and I think KC is going to take a step back. Oakland... oh man, I already wrote about how bad I think the Gruden hire is, and every sign is pointing it to being even WORSE then I thought! The Chargers should have a solid stranglehold on this division barring my thoughts on KC being wrong.
LAC - 10-6
OAK - 7-9
DEN - 7-9
KC - 5-11
NFC East
I really expect Philly to remain strong, stronger then every other team in the division, and they should have no major problems in division regardless of Foles or Wentz starting. I really think the Barkley pick for the Giants will pay immediate dividends, but they'll still struggle. Washington with Alex Smith is going to be a very stable franchise if not exciting. Dallas is going to be BAD this year. Garrett is NOT a good coach, and they have no good weapons other then Elliot.
PHI - 10-6
WAS - 7-9
DAL - 6-10
NYG - 6-10
NFC North
This might be the best division in football. I think Minnesota is in a good position to repeat, but Green Bay will give them competition. Detroit is going to be ok, I'm not a Stafford believer. Chicago is the great wild card. They're going to win games they shouldn't, and lose games they shouldn't. And I thought this before the Khalil Mack trade.
MINN - 13-3
GB - 11-5
CHI - 11-5
DET - 9-7
NFC South
New Orleans is going to be a monster this year. Atlanta is close - so close - but they're not on the same level as New Orleans. Carolina is going to be mediocre - I'm not a Newton believer - and Tampa is a dumpster fire.
NO - 12-4
ATL - 8-8
CAR - 6-10
TB - 1-15
NFC West
Rams. Holy crap the Rams. My poor Seahawks. San Francisco is a wild card, I'm not a Jimmy G believer yet - he did look great in games that didn't matter last year - and they have some interesting story lines. Arizona is in full rebuild, they want to get Rosen on the field ASAP. And Seattle is... I have no idea. They have a chance to survive and get a wild card, but the more I look into it, the slimmer that chance seems.
LAR - 13-3
SEA - 8-8
ARZ - 5-10
SF - 5-10
Playoff seeding!
AFC
1. Houston
2. Pittsburgh
3. LA Chargers
4. New England
5. Tennessee
6. Cleveland
NFC
1. LA Rams
2. Minnesota
3. New Orleans
4. Philadelphia
5. Green Bay
6. Chicago
Wild Card Round
Cleveland at LA Chargers - LAC
Tennessee at New England - NE
Chicago at New Orleans - NO
Green Bay at Philadelphia - PHIL
Huh, I never pick every home team to win in the wild card round. If it does play out this way, I would be shocked.
Divisional Round
LA Chargers at Pittsburgh - LAC
New England at Houston - HOU
Philadelphia at LA Rams - LAR
New Orleans at Minnesota (ha!) - NO
Championship Round
LA Chargers at Houston - LAC
New Orleans at LA Rams - NO
Super Bowl!
LA Chargers at New Orleans - NO
Geaux Saints!
So this was an interesting practice.
Thursday, September 6, 2018
Saturday, July 21, 2018
The tragedy that is (so far) Edgar Martinez's hall of fame exclusion.
Before I get into the sheer rediculousness that is the baseball hall of fame, I will caveat this post with one major point:
I'm a huge Mariners fan.
When I was a kid, we'd go to the kingdome, sit in the nosebleeds with our binoculars, and hope to catch a glimpse of Jr, Edgar, or even A-Rod (shudder). So my feelings to my home team and the greatest player in organization history are heavily weighted. That said, I'm going to do my damnedest to take off the rose colored glasses on this one and be objective.
Edgar Martinez just missed election into the baseball hall of fame in his ninth year of eligibility. What this means for those who don't know, is next year (2019) is his last year of eligibility before having to be voted in by the Veteran's committee, a process I both know nothing about, and suspect those committee members also know nothing about.
Now, I can sit here and recite statistic after statistic and talk about where he ranks among hall of famers, with the largest argument against him being the "low" home run total of 309. I could tell you that his career average of .312 ranks above such noted hall of famers like Jackie Robinson, Mickey Mantle, and some shmuck named Hank Aaron. Oh, and just for fun, he hit more doubles (514) then Babe Ruth (506).
No, instead I'm going to focus on one simple, important fact. Something that happened on the very last day of his playing career. After Edgar's final home game on September 25, 2004, Commissioner Bud Selig announced that the Outstanding Designated Hitter Award would be renamed the Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award.
Edgar still had more games to play, albeit on the road, making him the only active player to play in a sport WITH AN AWARD NAMED AFTER HIM. This has ALWAYS been something done either after a players career or posthumously. While Edgar did not win the award that year, he very well could have won HIS OWN DAMN AWARD.
Now, you may be wondering what point I'm exactly trying to make here. It's actually quite simple. Edgar Martinez played a sport that decided to name an award after him. I will now show you who all has had this distinguished honor in the four major american sports, and see if you can spot the commonality between all of them.
MLB
Jackie Robinson (HOF class of 1962) - Rookie of the Year
Cy Young (HOF class of 1937) - Best Pitcher
Hank Aaron (HOF class of 1982) - Best Batters
Roberto Clemente (HOF class of 1973) - Man of the Year Award
Ted Williams (HOF class of 1966) - All Star Game MVP
Tony Gwynn (HOF class of 2007)- Batting Champ (NL)
Rod Carew (HOF class of 1991) - Batting Champ (AL)
NFL
Walter Payton (HOF class of 1993) - Man of the Year Award
Bart Starr Award (HOF class of 1977) - Leadership Award
Art Rooney Award (HOF class of 1964) - Sportsmanship Award
Vince Lombardi (HOF class of 1971) - Super Bowl Trophy
George Halas (HOF class of 1963) - NFC Championship Trophy
Lamar Hunt (HOF class of 1972) - AFC Championship Trophy
NBA
Larry O'Brien (HOF class of 1991)- Championship Trophy
Eddie Gottlieb (HOF class of 1972)- Rookie of the Year
Maurice Podoloff (HOF class of 1974) - MVP
Red Auerbach (HOF class of 1969) - Coach of the Year
Bill Russell (HOF class of 1975) - Finals MVP
J. Walter Kennedy (HOF class of 1981) - Citizenship Award
Joe Dumars (HOF class of 2006) - Sportsmanship
Jack Twyman and Maurice Stokes (Both HOF class of 2006) - Teammate of the Year Award
NHL
...Okay, I'm not doing these ones. There are A LOT, and if you haven't picked up on the point I've been making about all the other awards named after people...
EVERY SINGLE ONE IS IN THEIR SPORTS HALL OF FAME.
No exceptions!
Edgar Martinez has a baseball award named after him. He is not in the hall of fame. This is simply wrong. If he was not worthy of the hall of fame, he should never of had an award named after him. Plain and simple. Voters, you have one year left to get this right. Do it already.
I'm a huge Mariners fan.
When I was a kid, we'd go to the kingdome, sit in the nosebleeds with our binoculars, and hope to catch a glimpse of Jr, Edgar, or even A-Rod (shudder). So my feelings to my home team and the greatest player in organization history are heavily weighted. That said, I'm going to do my damnedest to take off the rose colored glasses on this one and be objective.
Edgar Martinez just missed election into the baseball hall of fame in his ninth year of eligibility. What this means for those who don't know, is next year (2019) is his last year of eligibility before having to be voted in by the Veteran's committee, a process I both know nothing about, and suspect those committee members also know nothing about.
Now, I can sit here and recite statistic after statistic and talk about where he ranks among hall of famers, with the largest argument against him being the "low" home run total of 309. I could tell you that his career average of .312 ranks above such noted hall of famers like Jackie Robinson, Mickey Mantle, and some shmuck named Hank Aaron. Oh, and just for fun, he hit more doubles (514) then Babe Ruth (506).
No, instead I'm going to focus on one simple, important fact. Something that happened on the very last day of his playing career. After Edgar's final home game on September 25, 2004, Commissioner Bud Selig announced that the Outstanding Designated Hitter Award would be renamed the Edgar Martinez Outstanding Designated Hitter Award.
Edgar still had more games to play, albeit on the road, making him the only active player to play in a sport WITH AN AWARD NAMED AFTER HIM. This has ALWAYS been something done either after a players career or posthumously. While Edgar did not win the award that year, he very well could have won HIS OWN DAMN AWARD.
Now, you may be wondering what point I'm exactly trying to make here. It's actually quite simple. Edgar Martinez played a sport that decided to name an award after him. I will now show you who all has had this distinguished honor in the four major american sports, and see if you can spot the commonality between all of them.
MLB
Jackie Robinson (HOF class of 1962) - Rookie of the Year
Cy Young (HOF class of 1937) - Best Pitcher
Hank Aaron (HOF class of 1982) - Best Batters
Roberto Clemente (HOF class of 1973) - Man of the Year Award
Ted Williams (HOF class of 1966) - All Star Game MVP
Tony Gwynn (HOF class of 2007)- Batting Champ (NL)
Rod Carew (HOF class of 1991) - Batting Champ (AL)
NFL
Walter Payton (HOF class of 1993) - Man of the Year Award
Bart Starr Award (HOF class of 1977) - Leadership Award
Art Rooney Award (HOF class of 1964) - Sportsmanship Award
Vince Lombardi (HOF class of 1971) - Super Bowl Trophy
George Halas (HOF class of 1963) - NFC Championship Trophy
Lamar Hunt (HOF class of 1972) - AFC Championship Trophy
NBA
Larry O'Brien (HOF class of 1991)- Championship Trophy
Eddie Gottlieb (HOF class of 1972)- Rookie of the Year
Maurice Podoloff (HOF class of 1974) - MVP
Red Auerbach (HOF class of 1969) - Coach of the Year
Bill Russell (HOF class of 1975) - Finals MVP
J. Walter Kennedy (HOF class of 1981) - Citizenship Award
Joe Dumars (HOF class of 2006) - Sportsmanship
Jack Twyman and Maurice Stokes (Both HOF class of 2006) - Teammate of the Year Award
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| The greatest trophy in all of sports |
NHL
...Okay, I'm not doing these ones. There are A LOT, and if you haven't picked up on the point I've been making about all the other awards named after people...
EVERY SINGLE ONE IS IN THEIR SPORTS HALL OF FAME.
No exceptions!
Edgar Martinez has a baseball award named after him. He is not in the hall of fame. This is simply wrong. If he was not worthy of the hall of fame, he should never of had an award named after him. Plain and simple. Voters, you have one year left to get this right. Do it already.
Monday, January 15, 2018
Why Jon Gruden's 10 year deal with the Raiders is the funniest thing in NFL history
Holy crap! It's been over a year since I've written something! Damn.
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about Jon Gruden.
I can't stand the man. His stint on Monday Night Football has been absolutely terrible. On more then one occasion I've described him as a kindergarten teacher - everything is always the best thing ever. This man would have you think Tom Savage is the best quarterback in the league. I'm sure he doesn't believe these things, but it makes his commentary terrible.
Speaking of Gruden's opinion of quarterbacks, that is one of the things I've never understood. Why is he considered a quarterback guru? Nothing in his coaching career suggests that. Rich Gannon had the best season of his career - a season where he won MVP and led his team to the Super Bowl - the very next season after Jon Gruden left. Yes, Gruden did beat that very same Gannon in the Super Bowl, but it sure as hell wasn't with quarterback play. Brad Johnson was hardly a great quarterback on his best day, he was just tasked with not screwing up with that phenomenal defense they had in Tampa Bay - which Gruden also wasn't responsible for. That was Tony Dungy's baby, and he was run out of town after a winning season the year before. (Probably because he's black, but that's another story). In fact, that Super Bowl run that Tampa had was a crazy fluke. Tampa was okay in the ensuing years, but never put it all together again. Then once Gruden ran things for a while, the team fizzled, he was canned, and Tampa has been fairly mediocre at best since.
But is this all on Gruden? I mean, I'm just a shmuck sitting here getting angry at MNF whenever Gruden speaks, so maybe I'm just bitter? It's not like we live in an advanced age of stats and metrics where we can actually objectively measure out the success a coach has had over the course of his career.
Oh snap, we totally can!
Let's break down the super basic stuff first, I'm going down the rabbit hole on this one, so buckle up. Gruden's career record as a head coach is 95-81, a career winning percentage of .540. Not bad, but not great. In comparison, Jack Del Rio, the man Gruden is replacing, has a career record of 93-94, a winning percentage of .497, but he has a record of 25-23 - a win percentage of .521 - as the Raiders head coach. Those numbers include the disaster of a season that Oakland had this year as well. Based on those numbers, Gruden is at best a marginal upgrade over Del Rio, and Gruden was given the largest guaranteed contract in NFL history.
So Gruden's contract is the biggest ever given to a coach, and he is definitely not the greatest coach ever. He's not even the best coach in Raiders history. (for those not in the know, this is Gruden's second stint as Raiders head coach) Gruden's record as the Raiders coach is 64-38, a win percentage of .594 (woah, that IS an impressive number!), but that ranks behind John Rauch, John Madden, and Tom Flores, and unlike Gruden's stretch in Oakland, every single one of those guys made a Super Bowl, with Madden and Flores winning two and one, respectively.
We can further compare Gruden's record to other coaches who were, at best, mediocre, and nobody thought to give them massive contracts. Like Jeff Fisher. His career record is 173-165, a winning percentage of .512, and trust me, no one is going to try and sign Fisher to a 10 year deal. Fisher was very clearly the problem with the Rams last year, as evidenced by the massive growth the offense took this year with Jared Goff - a player Fisher refused to play - and new head coach Sean McVay.
Or better yet, let's compare Gruden's coaching record to Marvin Lewis, the (apparently) unfirable coach of the Bengals who has NEVER WON A PLAYOFF GAME in his 15 years with the team. Lewis' record is 125-112, a win percentage of .527. Whenever the Bengals finally have enough of a spine to fire Lewis, he will more then likely retire as no one will pick him up.
And finally, my favorite comparison on record - Jim Mora Sr. A career record of 125-106, a percentage of .541, and 0 playoff wins in 15 seasons. Mora's numbers in the regular season are better then Gruden, and most importantly, he's the owner of the best rant in NFL history. None of these guys are going to be remembered as great coaches, and all of them have comparable, or better, numbers as a coach then Jon Gruden.
But wait, Gruden's a quarterback guru! He's a great quarterback whisperer! He won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson!
Well yeah, Brian Billick won one with Trent Dilfer, and no one thought Billick was great with QB's for that.
Why the hell do people think this? Because he runs a QB camp where he hits guys with pool noodles?
Seriously, the stats don't support this. While Gannon's numbers were trending upwards during Gruden's tenure, they didn't reach the rediculous MVP numbers until Gruden left town, and Gruden's old Offensive Coordinator Bill Callahan took over. Gannon threw for nearly 1000 yards MORE that first season, and at the highest completion percentage of his entire career. It's hard to say if that was a fluke or not, because the next season Gannon got hurt, never fully recovered, and retired two years after winning MVP.
So let's look at Brad Johnson's numbers in Tampa then. Before Gruden arrived, in 2001, Johnson threw for just over 3,400 yards, 13 TDs, and 11 INTs, for a QB rating of 77.7. Nothing to write home about, the TD number is low, the INT number is fairly middling, and QB rating is very heavily weighted on touchdowns, explaining the fairly low 77.7 result. Gruden's first year with Johnson in 2002 saw Johnson throw for just over 3,000 yards, 22 TDs, and 6 INTs, for a rating of 92.9.
Wow! What an improvement! I clearly had this wrong!
Not so fast there.
This was the only year like that for Johnson. If Gruden clearly was some QB guru, Johnson would have carried some of that success over to the next season. Johnson had exactly zero success the next year, throwing his career high of 21 interceptions, but nearly 1,000 more yards then the previous year. It's clear that the offense began to run through Johnson primarily, and his numbers suffered greatly for it. Not indicative of a QB guru's touch. Johnson did throw for 26 touchdowns, also a career high, but when a quarterback throws touchdown passes and interceptions at virtually a 1:1 ratio, that is not a sign of good quarterback play.
Most of what I presented here I knew offhand, using a little bit of research to make sure the numbers were right, I wasn't making this up, etc. However, my knowledge of Gruden's coaching experience was only that of him as an NFL head coach, nothing else. Today all head coaches start somewhere lower on the totem pole, and I thought maybe along his way up, somewhere, Gruden became known as a quarterback guru.
The one teensy, little problem with this... Gruden was never a quarterbacks coach.
Gruden's coaching experience is as follows:
Tennessee: Graduate assistant (1986–1987)
Southeast Missouri State: Passing game coordinator (1988)
Pacific: Tight ends coach (1989)
San Francisco 49ers: Offensive assistant (1990)
Pittsburgh: Wide receivers coach (1991)
Green Bay Packers: Offensive assistant (1992)
Green Bay Packers: Wide receivers coach (1993–1994)
Philadelphia Eagles: Offensive coordinator (1995–1997)
Oakland Raiders: Head coach (1998–2001)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Head coach (2002–2008)
Oakland Raiders: Head coach (2018–present)
Now, I would be foolish if I told you a wide receivers coach never works with the quarterback. Clearly, there has to be a relationship of SOME sort to get everyone on the same page, understanding route combinations, option routes, etc. But when you're never tasked with working DIRECTLY with those players, I would argue that your ability to coach them up - and get genuine credit for it - is dissipated. So, since I see no quarterback work prior to 1995, let us examine his tenure as offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, and see how everything worked on an offensive level before Gruden, during Gruden, and after Gruden.
This means we get to look at the growth of... Randall Cunningham, Ty Detmer, and Rodney Peete.
Okay then.
But first, let's look at the total offensive rankings during Gruden's tenure, as he was the Offensive Coordinator, so he gets credit for all the offensive production, not just the quarterback. We'll start in 1993 so you can see where they came from, Gruden took the OC roll in 1995.
1993: 15th
1994: 14th
1995: 25th
1996: 4th
1997: 5th
Woah! That is the first legitimately surprising thing I've discovered on this little journey, Gruden should TOTALLY get credit for that offensive turn around. This also explains how he got the Oakland head coaching position as well, you can't argue with results like that.
But what happened after Gruden left? If he was the primary reason for the success, we should see a drop off, right?
1998: 30th (last)
1999: 30th (second to last, gogo expansion Browns!)
2000: 17th (Donovan McNabb's first full season as starter)
Holy crap, surprise number two, that's a massive falloff. Gruden clearly had a major hand in the offensive success of the Eagles while he was the OC. However, the numbers are going to be terribly muddy to get through as Philly had no reliable QB those first two years, juggling "starters" like Koy Detmer, Bobby Hoying, and current Eagles head coach Doug Pederson - seriously, he started 9 games in 1999 - and when you go through a stretch of QB play like that, your offensive numbers should struggle. Philadelphia also had a new OC for both 1998 and 1999,(Dana Bible and Rod Dowhower, respectively) and first years tend to be rough, as seen by that 25 rating in Gruden's first year, but the fall shouldn't be that complete with a new OC. 1999 also saw a new head coach in Philadelphia in Andy Reid.
I'm not going to break down the changes in the Philadelphia quarterbacks the years Gruden was OC because, frankly, he didn't have one. Philly was clearly looking for a QB and rotated through mediocre starters before landing McNabb in the draft after Gruden left. So let us jump to the next destination where he had a pretty major say in the offense - Oakland.
Gruden was hired by Oakland in 1998 primarily due to the turn around he had created in Philadelphia's offense - remember, this was done without reliable quarterbacking play, making it even more impressive. His first two years in Oakland, Chuckie went 8-8. He followed that up with a 12-4 record, losing the the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens in the AFC championship game. His fourth and final year Oakland went 10-6, losing to New England in the infamous "tuck rule" game.
Not a bad tenure as coach. No losing seasons, decent playoff runs, no championships, sure, but he was robbed pretty badly that last year. So let's look at his offense. Here are his rankings.
1998: 18th
1999: 5th
2000: 6th
2001: 7th
Woah! The dude knows offense! I'm starting to wonder if my complaints on him are valid (don't fret, they are, I'll get there) These are FANTASTIC offensive numbers for a first time head coach. The Tampa trade makes more sense now, as that team had a great defense but minimal offense under Tony Dungy.
But this wouldn't be complete without looking at the offense before he arrived and after he left, to see what kind of change he really did make. Let's start by looking at what he was inheriting.
1995: 11th
1996: 8th
1997: 13th
Hmm, his accomplishment no seems less impressive. Don't get me wrong, going from middle of the pack to top of the class is something to be impressed by, but he clearly didn't enter a situation with a bare cupboard. If you know anything about former Raiders owner Al Davis, it was he LOVED offense, and he always had to have the big flashy guy, so inheriting those players that he drafted definitely makes the job easier.
So knowing that he didn't receive a talentless offense, let's see how they fared after he left.
2002: 1st
2003: 25th
2004: 17th
In 2003 Rich Gannon was injured and never recovered, so the numbers were expected to go down. However, in his very first year absent, the offense jumped to 1st in the league. Props to Bill Callahan for sure. Going from 7th to 1st isn't an impossible leap, the ranking of 7th shows that you have the ability to lead the league, but actually DOING it comes down to execution, and yes, coaching.
As far as Gannon's play, obviously 2002 was the best year of his career as he won league MVP and led the Raiders to the Super Bowl - all without Gruden. But let's look at his performance prior and during Gruden, as his post Gruden years were marred by injury.
Gannon was signed as a free agent by Oakland in 1999, Gruden's second year as coach. While in Oakland, Gannon made 4 straight pro bowls (3 under Gruden) and was named first team All Pro twice (once under Gruden). Prior to coming to Oakland, Gannon had only moderate success in Kansas City and Minnesota, so going from average quarterback to All Pro under Gruden is an impressive feat. If he won the MVP while Gruden was coach, that would be even more impressive for Gruden.
But let's look at one teensy little detail about all of this offensive success. Bill Callahan was hired as Gruden's Offensive Coordinator in...(drum roll please) 1998, Gruden's first year as coach.
Don't get me wrong, the head coach deserves and should receive credit for the job of the whole team, but the offensive coordinator is the guy who runs the offense, even with an offensive minded coach like Gruden. In Philly, Gruden could take all of the credit for the offensive success because he coached under Ray Rhodes, a defensive minded coach. In Oakland, at best, it HAS to be shared with Callahan. And the year after Gruden leaves? Oakland gets over the hump, the offense becomes the best in the league, and they don't miss Gruden AT ALL. This makes me legitimately question how much of his accomplishments in Oakland are in fact due to him, as the team didn't miss a beat once he left town.
This leads us to our final chapter, Gruden's final coaching spot before being hired last week by the Raiders. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
In 2002 the Buccaneers fired Tony Dungy after another playoff loss, with blame placed fairly squarely on the performance of the offense. Almost immediately Dungy was hired by the Colts, and the Bucs floundered looking for a coach for months. They eventually became desperate, and managed to BUY Gruden from the Raiders. The net haul the Raiders received for their coach was 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2002, a first rounder in 2003, another 2nd rounder in 2004, and 8 million bucks, because why not? The Raiders fleeced the Bucs because Tampa was desperate, and fans and commentators alike were wondering if firing Dungy was the right decision.
So Gruden arriveds in Tampa in 2002. And Tampa kicks ass. Like, everybody's ass. Tampa went 12-4 on their way to the 2 seed in the NFC, with the league's #1 defense and the defensive player of the year, linebacker Derrick Brooks. Tampa then destroyed San Francisco and Philadelphia en route to the Super Bowl before facing Gruden's former team in Oakland - and completely destroying them. I remember the game quite well. I was in high school, and was bummed because I had to go to my job delivering pizzas. I got to watch the first half of the game... and I didn't need to see the second. That Tampa defense absolutely destroyed Oakland from the get go, scoring two defensive touchdowns IN THE FIRST HALF. The game was a joke and never close.
But it wasn't the offense that won that game. It was the defense. Put together for years by the recently ousted Tony Dungy and ran by legendary defensive wizard Monte Kiffin. THOSE coaches won that Super Bowl for Tampa, and Gruden even thanked Dungy during the trophy ceremony, even though Dungy was no longer affiliated with the team. You don't do that if you don't think they had a major impact.
But this isn't about defense, this is about Jon Gruden, and as such, it's about offense. So let's look at the rankings during Gruden's tenure.
2002: 24th(won Super Bowl 37)
2003: 10th
2004: 22nd
2005: 23rd
2006: 29th
2007: 18th
2008: 14th
Where in those numbers do you see offensive genius? The year they WON THE SUPER BOWL was the second worst offense of Gruden's tenure. That's... horrible. Brad Johnson was around for two more years, and once Gruden's offense was fully implemented, Johnson threw a career high... in interceptions. The defense began to age and get expensive, so they could no longer reliably fall back on that great defense to win games, and Gruden finished with a career record in Tampa of 57-55, hardly anything impressive. And yet, in 2017 he was inducted into Tampa Bay's ring of honor as the winningest coach in Tampa Bay history. He got that title by coaching for seven seasons, only having 4 winning seasons in that time frame. Once again, not impressive.
This was Gruden's last foray as a head coach. Following a disappointing 2008 season that saw Tampa lose all of their games in the final month of the season, Gruden was canned, and hired as a color analyst for Monday Night Football in 2009. He was so bad at this broadcasting job that in 2016 ESPN hired Sean Mcdonough to make Gruden look competent by comparison.
So a man who hasn't coached in ten years, who hasn't made a significant improvement to his team since 1999, and who already has chosen to hire another failed coach (Tom Cable) is somehow worth a 10-year, 100 million dollar contract? I laughed when I heard this, and I'll continue to laugh as Gruden cashes those gigantic checks.
At least he got a no-trade clause this time around.
Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about Jon Gruden.
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| "Do I need to poop?" |
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| Rich Gannon and Jon Gruden |
Speaking of Gruden's opinion of quarterbacks, that is one of the things I've never understood. Why is he considered a quarterback guru? Nothing in his coaching career suggests that. Rich Gannon had the best season of his career - a season where he won MVP and led his team to the Super Bowl - the very next season after Jon Gruden left. Yes, Gruden did beat that very same Gannon in the Super Bowl, but it sure as hell wasn't with quarterback play. Brad Johnson was hardly a great quarterback on his best day, he was just tasked with not screwing up with that phenomenal defense they had in Tampa Bay - which Gruden also wasn't responsible for. That was Tony Dungy's baby, and he was run out of town after a winning season the year before. (Probably because he's black, but that's another story). In fact, that Super Bowl run that Tampa had was a crazy fluke. Tampa was okay in the ensuing years, but never put it all together again. Then once Gruden ran things for a while, the team fizzled, he was canned, and Tampa has been fairly mediocre at best since.
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| Brad Johnson and Jon Gruden |
But is this all on Gruden? I mean, I'm just a shmuck sitting here getting angry at MNF whenever Gruden speaks, so maybe I'm just bitter? It's not like we live in an advanced age of stats and metrics where we can actually objectively measure out the success a coach has had over the course of his career.
Oh snap, we totally can!
Let's break down the super basic stuff first, I'm going down the rabbit hole on this one, so buckle up. Gruden's career record as a head coach is 95-81, a career winning percentage of .540. Not bad, but not great. In comparison, Jack Del Rio, the man Gruden is replacing, has a career record of 93-94, a winning percentage of .497, but he has a record of 25-23 - a win percentage of .521 - as the Raiders head coach. Those numbers include the disaster of a season that Oakland had this year as well. Based on those numbers, Gruden is at best a marginal upgrade over Del Rio, and Gruden was given the largest guaranteed contract in NFL history.
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| Jack Del Rio |
So Gruden's contract is the biggest ever given to a coach, and he is definitely not the greatest coach ever. He's not even the best coach in Raiders history. (for those not in the know, this is Gruden's second stint as Raiders head coach) Gruden's record as the Raiders coach is 64-38, a win percentage of .594 (woah, that IS an impressive number!), but that ranks behind John Rauch, John Madden, and Tom Flores, and unlike Gruden's stretch in Oakland, every single one of those guys made a Super Bowl, with Madden and Flores winning two and one, respectively.
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| Any excuse for Tom Flores! |
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| "I'm as good as Gruden!" |
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| "How am I still employed?" |
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| "Playoffs?" |
Well yeah, Brian Billick won one with Trent Dilfer, and no one thought Billick was great with QB's for that.
Why the hell do people think this? Because he runs a QB camp where he hits guys with pool noodles?
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| I really wish I was making this up. |
So let's look at Brad Johnson's numbers in Tampa then. Before Gruden arrived, in 2001, Johnson threw for just over 3,400 yards, 13 TDs, and 11 INTs, for a QB rating of 77.7. Nothing to write home about, the TD number is low, the INT number is fairly middling, and QB rating is very heavily weighted on touchdowns, explaining the fairly low 77.7 result. Gruden's first year with Johnson in 2002 saw Johnson throw for just over 3,000 yards, 22 TDs, and 6 INTs, for a rating of 92.9.
Wow! What an improvement! I clearly had this wrong!
Not so fast there.
This was the only year like that for Johnson. If Gruden clearly was some QB guru, Johnson would have carried some of that success over to the next season. Johnson had exactly zero success the next year, throwing his career high of 21 interceptions, but nearly 1,000 more yards then the previous year. It's clear that the offense began to run through Johnson primarily, and his numbers suffered greatly for it. Not indicative of a QB guru's touch. Johnson did throw for 26 touchdowns, also a career high, but when a quarterback throws touchdown passes and interceptions at virtually a 1:1 ratio, that is not a sign of good quarterback play.
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| This is hard again... |
The one teensy, little problem with this... Gruden was never a quarterbacks coach.
Gruden's coaching experience is as follows:
Tennessee: Graduate assistant (1986–1987)
Southeast Missouri State: Passing game coordinator (1988)
Pacific: Tight ends coach (1989)
San Francisco 49ers: Offensive assistant (1990)
Pittsburgh: Wide receivers coach (1991)
Green Bay Packers: Offensive assistant (1992)
Green Bay Packers: Wide receivers coach (1993–1994)
Philadelphia Eagles: Offensive coordinator (1995–1997)
Oakland Raiders: Head coach (1998–2001)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Head coach (2002–2008)
Oakland Raiders: Head coach (2018–present)
Now, I would be foolish if I told you a wide receivers coach never works with the quarterback. Clearly, there has to be a relationship of SOME sort to get everyone on the same page, understanding route combinations, option routes, etc. But when you're never tasked with working DIRECTLY with those players, I would argue that your ability to coach them up - and get genuine credit for it - is dissipated. So, since I see no quarterback work prior to 1995, let us examine his tenure as offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, and see how everything worked on an offensive level before Gruden, during Gruden, and after Gruden.
This means we get to look at the growth of... Randall Cunningham, Ty Detmer, and Rodney Peete.
Okay then.
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| Cunningham! Holy crap! |
1993: 15th
1994: 14th
1995: 25th
1996: 4th
1997: 5th
Woah! That is the first legitimately surprising thing I've discovered on this little journey, Gruden should TOTALLY get credit for that offensive turn around. This also explains how he got the Oakland head coaching position as well, you can't argue with results like that.
But what happened after Gruden left? If he was the primary reason for the success, we should see a drop off, right?
1998: 30th (last)
1999: 30th (second to last, gogo expansion Browns!)
2000: 17th (Donovan McNabb's first full season as starter)
Holy crap, surprise number two, that's a massive falloff. Gruden clearly had a major hand in the offensive success of the Eagles while he was the OC. However, the numbers are going to be terribly muddy to get through as Philly had no reliable QB those first two years, juggling "starters" like Koy Detmer, Bobby Hoying, and current Eagles head coach Doug Pederson - seriously, he started 9 games in 1999 - and when you go through a stretch of QB play like that, your offensive numbers should struggle. Philadelphia also had a new OC for both 1998 and 1999,(Dana Bible and Rod Dowhower, respectively) and first years tend to be rough, as seen by that 25 rating in Gruden's first year, but the fall shouldn't be that complete with a new OC. 1999 also saw a new head coach in Philadelphia in Andy Reid.
I'm not going to break down the changes in the Philadelphia quarterbacks the years Gruden was OC because, frankly, he didn't have one. Philly was clearly looking for a QB and rotated through mediocre starters before landing McNabb in the draft after Gruden left. So let us jump to the next destination where he had a pretty major say in the offense - Oakland.
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| Chuckie! |
Not a bad tenure as coach. No losing seasons, decent playoff runs, no championships, sure, but he was robbed pretty badly that last year. So let's look at his offense. Here are his rankings.
1998: 18th
1999: 5th
2000: 6th
2001: 7th
Woah! The dude knows offense! I'm starting to wonder if my complaints on him are valid (don't fret, they are, I'll get there) These are FANTASTIC offensive numbers for a first time head coach. The Tampa trade makes more sense now, as that team had a great defense but minimal offense under Tony Dungy.
But this wouldn't be complete without looking at the offense before he arrived and after he left, to see what kind of change he really did make. Let's start by looking at what he was inheriting.
1995: 11th
1996: 8th
1997: 13th
Hmm, his accomplishment no seems less impressive. Don't get me wrong, going from middle of the pack to top of the class is something to be impressed by, but he clearly didn't enter a situation with a bare cupboard. If you know anything about former Raiders owner Al Davis, it was he LOVED offense, and he always had to have the big flashy guy, so inheriting those players that he drafted definitely makes the job easier.
So knowing that he didn't receive a talentless offense, let's see how they fared after he left.
2002: 1st
2003: 25th
2004: 17th
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| Never a good look for your starting QB |
As far as Gannon's play, obviously 2002 was the best year of his career as he won league MVP and led the Raiders to the Super Bowl - all without Gruden. But let's look at his performance prior and during Gruden, as his post Gruden years were marred by injury.
Gannon was signed as a free agent by Oakland in 1999, Gruden's second year as coach. While in Oakland, Gannon made 4 straight pro bowls (3 under Gruden) and was named first team All Pro twice (once under Gruden). Prior to coming to Oakland, Gannon had only moderate success in Kansas City and Minnesota, so going from average quarterback to All Pro under Gruden is an impressive feat. If he won the MVP while Gruden was coach, that would be even more impressive for Gruden.
But let's look at one teensy little detail about all of this offensive success. Bill Callahan was hired as Gruden's Offensive Coordinator in...(drum roll please) 1998, Gruden's first year as coach.
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| Holy shit I'm giving Bill Callahan credit for something. |
Don't get me wrong, the head coach deserves and should receive credit for the job of the whole team, but the offensive coordinator is the guy who runs the offense, even with an offensive minded coach like Gruden. In Philly, Gruden could take all of the credit for the offensive success because he coached under Ray Rhodes, a defensive minded coach. In Oakland, at best, it HAS to be shared with Callahan. And the year after Gruden leaves? Oakland gets over the hump, the offense becomes the best in the league, and they don't miss Gruden AT ALL. This makes me legitimately question how much of his accomplishments in Oakland are in fact due to him, as the team didn't miss a beat once he left town.
This leads us to our final chapter, Gruden's final coaching spot before being hired last week by the Raiders. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
So Gruden arriveds in Tampa in 2002. And Tampa kicks ass. Like, everybody's ass. Tampa went 12-4 on their way to the 2 seed in the NFC, with the league's #1 defense and the defensive player of the year, linebacker Derrick Brooks. Tampa then destroyed San Francisco and Philadelphia en route to the Super Bowl before facing Gruden's former team in Oakland - and completely destroying them. I remember the game quite well. I was in high school, and was bummed because I had to go to my job delivering pizzas. I got to watch the first half of the game... and I didn't need to see the second. That Tampa defense absolutely destroyed Oakland from the get go, scoring two defensive touchdowns IN THE FIRST HALF. The game was a joke and never close.
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| 2002 Defensive Player of the Year Derrick Brooks |
But this isn't about defense, this is about Jon Gruden, and as such, it's about offense. So let's look at the rankings during Gruden's tenure.
2002: 24th(won Super Bowl 37)
2003: 10th
2004: 22nd
2005: 23rd
2006: 29th
2007: 18th
2008: 14th
Where in those numbers do you see offensive genius? The year they WON THE SUPER BOWL was the second worst offense of Gruden's tenure. That's... horrible. Brad Johnson was around for two more years, and once Gruden's offense was fully implemented, Johnson threw a career high... in interceptions. The defense began to age and get expensive, so they could no longer reliably fall back on that great defense to win games, and Gruden finished with a career record in Tampa of 57-55, hardly anything impressive. And yet, in 2017 he was inducted into Tampa Bay's ring of honor as the winningest coach in Tampa Bay history. He got that title by coaching for seven seasons, only having 4 winning seasons in that time frame. Once again, not impressive.
This was Gruden's last foray as a head coach. Following a disappointing 2008 season that saw Tampa lose all of their games in the final month of the season, Gruden was canned, and hired as a color analyst for Monday Night Football in 2009. He was so bad at this broadcasting job that in 2016 ESPN hired Sean Mcdonough to make Gruden look competent by comparison.
So a man who hasn't coached in ten years, who hasn't made a significant improvement to his team since 1999, and who already has chosen to hire another failed coach (Tom Cable) is somehow worth a 10-year, 100 million dollar contract? I laughed when I heard this, and I'll continue to laugh as Gruden cashes those gigantic checks.
At least he got a no-trade clause this time around.
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