Why Jon Gruden's 10 year deal with the Raiders is the funniest thing in NFL history

Holy crap! It's been over a year since I've written something! Damn.

Now that that's out of the way, let's talk about Jon Gruden.

"Do I need to poop?"

I can't stand the man. His stint on Monday Night Football has been absolutely terrible. On more then one occasion I've described him as a kindergarten teacher - everything is always the best thing ever. This man would have you think Tom Savage is the best quarterback in the league. I'm sure he doesn't believe these things, but it makes his commentary terrible.

Rich Gannon and Jon Gruden

Speaking of Gruden's opinion of quarterbacks, that is one of the things I've never understood. Why is he considered a quarterback guru? Nothing in his coaching career suggests that. Rich Gannon had the best season of his career - a season where he won MVP and led his team to the Super Bowl - the very next season after Jon Gruden left. Yes, Gruden did beat that very same Gannon in the Super Bowl, but it sure as hell wasn't with quarterback play. Brad Johnson was hardly a great quarterback on his best day, he was just tasked with not screwing up with that phenomenal defense they had in Tampa Bay - which Gruden also wasn't responsible for. That was Tony Dungy's baby, and he was run out of town after a winning season the year before. (Probably because he's black, but that's another story). In fact, that Super Bowl run that Tampa had was a crazy fluke. Tampa was okay in the ensuing years, but never put it all together again. Then once Gruden ran things for a while, the team fizzled, he was canned, and Tampa has been fairly mediocre at best since.

Brad Johnson and Jon Gruden

But is this all on Gruden? I mean, I'm just a shmuck sitting here getting angry at MNF whenever Gruden speaks, so maybe I'm just bitter? It's not like we live in an advanced age of stats and metrics where we can actually objectively measure out the success a coach has had over the course of his career.

Oh snap, we totally can!

Let's break down the super basic stuff first, I'm going down the rabbit hole on this one, so buckle up. Gruden's career record as a head coach is 95-81, a career winning percentage of .540. Not bad, but not great. In comparison, Jack Del Rio, the man Gruden is replacing, has a career record of 93-94, a winning percentage of .497, but he has a record of 25-23 - a win percentage of .521 - as the Raiders head coach. Those numbers include the disaster of a season that Oakland had this year as well. Based on those numbers, Gruden is at best a marginal upgrade over Del Rio, and Gruden was given the largest guaranteed contract in NFL history.

Jack Del Rio

So Gruden's contract is the biggest ever given to a coach, and he is definitely not the greatest coach ever. He's not even the best coach in Raiders history. (for those not in the know, this is Gruden's second stint as Raiders head coach) Gruden's record as the Raiders coach is 64-38, a win percentage of .594 (woah, that IS an impressive number!), but that ranks behind John Rauch, John Madden, and Tom Flores, and unlike Gruden's stretch in Oakland, every single one of those guys made a Super Bowl, with Madden and Flores winning two and one, respectively.

Any excuse for Tom Flores!

We can further compare Gruden's record to other coaches who were, at best, mediocre, and nobody thought to give them massive contracts. Like Jeff Fisher. His career record is 173-165, a winning percentage of .512, and trust me, no one is going to try and sign Fisher to a 10 year deal. Fisher was very clearly the problem with the Rams last year, as evidenced by the massive growth the offense took this year with Jared Goff - a player Fisher refused to play - and new head coach Sean McVay.

"I'm as good as Gruden!"

Or better yet, let's compare Gruden's coaching record to Marvin Lewis, the (apparently) unfirable coach of the Bengals who has NEVER WON A PLAYOFF GAME in his 15 years with the team. Lewis' record is 125-112, a win percentage of .527. Whenever the Bengals finally have enough of a spine to fire Lewis, he will more then likely retire as no one will pick him up.

"How am I still employed?"

And finally, my favorite comparison on record - Jim Mora Sr. A career record of 125-106, a percentage of .541, and 0 playoff wins in 15 seasons. Mora's numbers in the regular season are better then Gruden, and most importantly, he's the owner of the best rant in NFL history. None of these guys are going to be remembered as great coaches, and all of them have comparable, or better, numbers as a coach then Jon Gruden.

"Playoffs?"

But wait, Gruden's a quarterback guru! He's a great quarterback whisperer! He won a Super Bowl with Brad Johnson!

Well yeah, Brian Billick won one with Trent Dilfer, and no one thought Billick was great with QB's for that.

Why the hell do people think this? Because he runs a QB camp where he hits guys with pool noodles?

I really wish I was making this up.

Seriously, the stats don't support this. While Gannon's numbers were trending upwards during Gruden's tenure, they didn't reach the rediculous MVP numbers until Gruden left town, and Gruden's old Offensive Coordinator Bill Callahan took over. Gannon threw for nearly 1000 yards MORE that first season, and at the highest completion percentage of his entire career. It's hard to say if that was a fluke or not, because the next season Gannon got hurt, never fully recovered, and retired two years after winning MVP.

So let's look at Brad Johnson's numbers in Tampa then. Before Gruden arrived, in 2001, Johnson threw for just over 3,400 yards, 13 TDs, and 11 INTs, for a QB rating of 77.7. Nothing to write home about, the TD number is low, the INT number is fairly middling, and QB rating is very heavily weighted on touchdowns, explaining the fairly low 77.7 result. Gruden's first year with Johnson in 2002 saw Johnson throw for just over 3,000 yards, 22 TDs, and 6 INTs, for a rating of 92.9.

Wow! What an improvement! I clearly had this wrong!

Not so fast there.

This was the only year like that for Johnson. If Gruden clearly was some QB guru, Johnson would have carried some of that success over to the next season. Johnson had exactly zero success the next year, throwing his career high of 21 interceptions, but nearly 1,000 more yards then the previous year. It's clear that the offense began to run through Johnson primarily, and his numbers suffered greatly for it. Not indicative of a QB guru's touch. Johnson did throw for 26 touchdowns, also a career high, but when a quarterback throws touchdown passes and interceptions at virtually a 1:1 ratio, that is not a sign of good quarterback play.

This is hard again...

Most of what I presented here I knew offhand, using a little bit of research to make sure the numbers were right, I wasn't making this up, etc. However, my knowledge of Gruden's coaching experience was only that of him as an NFL head coach, nothing else. Today all head coaches start somewhere lower on the totem pole, and I thought maybe along his way up, somewhere, Gruden became known as a quarterback guru.

The one teensy, little problem with this... Gruden was never a quarterbacks coach.

Gruden's coaching experience is as follows:

Tennessee: Graduate assistant (1986–1987)

Southeast Missouri State: Passing game coordinator (1988)

Pacific: Tight ends coach (1989)

San Francisco 49ers: Offensive assistant (1990)

Pittsburgh: Wide receivers coach (1991)

Green Bay Packers: Offensive assistant (1992)

Green Bay Packers: Wide receivers coach (1993–1994)

Philadelphia Eagles: Offensive coordinator (1995–1997)

Oakland Raiders: Head coach (1998–2001)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Head coach (2002–2008)

Oakland Raiders: Head coach (2018–present)

Now, I would be foolish if I told you a wide receivers coach never works with the quarterback. Clearly, there has to be a relationship of SOME sort to get everyone on the same page, understanding route combinations, option routes, etc. But when you're never tasked with working DIRECTLY with those players, I would argue that your ability to coach them up - and get genuine credit for it - is dissipated. So, since I see no quarterback work prior to 1995, let us examine his tenure as offensive coordinator for the Philadelphia Eagles, and see how everything worked on an offensive level before Gruden, during Gruden, and after Gruden.

This means we get to look at the growth of... Randall Cunningham, Ty Detmer, and Rodney Peete.

Okay then.

Cunningham! Holy crap!

But first, let's look at the total offensive rankings during Gruden's tenure, as he was the Offensive Coordinator, so he gets credit for all the offensive production, not just the quarterback. We'll start in 1993 so you can see where they came from, Gruden took the OC roll in 1995.

1993: 15th
1994: 14th
1995: 25th
1996: 4th
1997: 5th

Woah! That is the first legitimately surprising thing I've discovered on this little journey, Gruden should TOTALLY get credit for that offensive turn around. This also explains how he got the Oakland head coaching position as well, you can't argue with results like that.

But what happened after Gruden left? If he was the primary reason for the success, we should see a drop off, right?

1998: 30th (last)
1999: 30th (second to last, gogo expansion Browns!)
2000: 17th (Donovan McNabb's first full season as starter)

Holy crap, surprise number two, that's a massive falloff. Gruden clearly had a major hand in the offensive success of the Eagles while he was the OC. However, the numbers are going to be terribly muddy to get through as Philly had no reliable QB those first two years, juggling "starters" like Koy Detmer, Bobby Hoying, and current Eagles head coach Doug Pederson - seriously, he started 9 games in 1999 - and when you go through a stretch of QB play like that, your offensive numbers should struggle. Philadelphia also had a new OC for both 1998 and 1999,(Dana Bible and Rod Dowhower, respectively) and first years tend to be rough, as seen by that 25 rating in Gruden's first year, but the fall shouldn't be that complete with a new OC. 1999 also saw a new head coach in Philadelphia in Andy Reid.

I'm not going to break down the changes in the Philadelphia quarterbacks the years Gruden was OC because, frankly, he didn't have one. Philly was clearly looking for a QB and rotated through mediocre starters before landing McNabb in the draft after Gruden left. So let us jump to the next destination where he had a pretty major say in the offense - Oakland.

Chuckie!

Gruden was hired by Oakland in 1998 primarily due to the turn around he had created in Philadelphia's offense - remember, this was done without reliable quarterbacking play, making it even more impressive. His first two years in Oakland, Chuckie went 8-8. He followed that up with a 12-4 record, losing the the eventual Super Bowl champion Ravens in the AFC championship game. His fourth and final year Oakland went 10-6, losing to New England in the infamous "tuck rule" game.

Not a bad tenure as coach. No losing seasons, decent playoff runs, no championships, sure, but he was robbed pretty badly that last year. So let's look at his offense. Here are his rankings.

1998: 18th
1999: 5th
2000: 6th
2001: 7th

Woah! The dude knows offense! I'm starting to wonder if my complaints on him are valid (don't fret, they are, I'll get there) These are FANTASTIC offensive numbers for a first time head coach. The Tampa trade makes more sense now, as that team had a great defense but minimal offense under Tony Dungy.

But this wouldn't be complete without looking at the offense before he arrived and after he left, to see what kind of change he really did make. Let's start by looking at what he was inheriting.

1995: 11th
1996: 8th
1997: 13th

Hmm, his accomplishment no seems less impressive. Don't get me wrong, going from middle of the pack to top of the class is something to be impressed by, but he clearly didn't enter a situation with a bare cupboard. If you know anything about former Raiders owner Al Davis, it was he LOVED offense, and he always had to have the big flashy guy, so inheriting those players that he drafted definitely makes the job easier.

So knowing that he didn't receive a talentless offense, let's see how they fared after he left.

2002: 1st
2003: 25th
2004: 17th

Never a good look for your starting QB

In 2003 Rich Gannon was injured and never recovered, so the numbers were expected to go down. However, in his very first year absent, the offense jumped to 1st in the league. Props to Bill Callahan for sure. Going from 7th to 1st isn't an impossible leap, the ranking of 7th shows that you have the ability to lead the league, but actually DOING it comes down to execution, and yes, coaching.

As far as Gannon's play, obviously 2002 was the best year of his career as he won league MVP and led the Raiders to the Super Bowl - all without Gruden. But let's look at his performance prior and during Gruden, as his post Gruden years were marred by injury.

Gannon was signed as a free agent by Oakland in 1999, Gruden's second year as coach. While in Oakland, Gannon made 4 straight pro bowls (3 under Gruden) and was named first team All Pro twice (once under Gruden). Prior to coming to Oakland, Gannon had only moderate success in Kansas City and Minnesota, so going from average quarterback to All Pro under Gruden is an impressive feat. If he won the MVP while Gruden was coach, that would be even more impressive for Gruden.

But let's look at one teensy little detail about all of this offensive success. Bill Callahan was hired as Gruden's Offensive Coordinator in...(drum roll please) 1998, Gruden's first year as coach.

Holy shit I'm giving Bill Callahan credit for something.

Don't get me wrong, the head coach deserves and should receive credit for the job of the whole team, but the offensive coordinator is the guy who runs the offense, even with an offensive minded coach like Gruden. In Philly, Gruden could take all of the credit for the offensive success because he coached under Ray Rhodes, a defensive minded coach. In Oakland, at best, it HAS to be shared with Callahan. And the year after Gruden leaves? Oakland gets over the hump, the offense becomes the best in the league, and they don't miss Gruden AT ALL. This makes me legitimately question how much of his accomplishments in Oakland are in fact due to him, as the team didn't miss a beat once he left town.

This leads us to our final chapter, Gruden's final coaching spot before being hired last week by the Raiders. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

In 2002 the Buccaneers fired Tony Dungy after another playoff loss, with blame placed fairly squarely on the performance of the offense. Almost immediately Dungy was hired by the Colts, and the Bucs floundered looking for a coach for months. They eventually became desperate, and managed to BUY Gruden from the Raiders. The net haul the Raiders received for their coach was 1st and 2nd round draft picks in 2002, a first rounder in 2003, another 2nd rounder in 2004, and 8 million bucks, because why not? The Raiders fleeced the Bucs because Tampa was desperate, and fans and commentators alike were wondering if firing Dungy was the right decision.

So Gruden arriveds in Tampa in 2002. And Tampa kicks ass. Like, everybody's ass. Tampa went 12-4 on their way to the 2 seed in the NFC, with the league's #1 defense and the defensive player of the year, linebacker Derrick Brooks. Tampa then destroyed San Francisco and Philadelphia en route to the Super Bowl before facing Gruden's former team in Oakland - and completely destroying them. I remember the game quite well. I was in high school, and was bummed because I had to go to my job delivering pizzas. I got to watch the first half of the game... and I didn't need to see the second. That Tampa defense absolutely destroyed Oakland from the get go, scoring two defensive touchdowns IN THE FIRST HALF. The game was a joke and never close.

2002 Defensive Player of the Year Derrick Brooks

 But it wasn't the offense that won that game. It was the defense. Put together for years by the recently ousted Tony Dungy and ran by legendary defensive wizard Monte Kiffin. THOSE coaches won that Super Bowl for Tampa, and Gruden even thanked Dungy during the trophy ceremony, even though Dungy was no longer affiliated with the team. You don't do that if you don't think they had a major impact.

But this isn't about defense, this is about Jon Gruden, and as such, it's about offense. So let's look at the rankings during Gruden's tenure.

2002: 24th(won Super Bowl 37)
2003: 10th
2004: 22nd
2005: 23rd
2006: 29th
2007: 18th
2008: 14th

Where in those numbers do you see offensive genius? The year they WON THE SUPER BOWL was the second worst offense of Gruden's tenure. That's... horrible. Brad Johnson was around for two more years, and once Gruden's offense was fully implemented, Johnson threw a career high... in interceptions. The defense began to age and get expensive, so they could no longer reliably fall back on that great defense to win games, and Gruden finished with a career record in Tampa of 57-55, hardly anything impressive. And yet, in 2017 he was inducted into Tampa Bay's ring of honor as the winningest coach in Tampa Bay history. He got that title by coaching for seven seasons, only having 4 winning seasons in that time frame. Once again, not impressive.

This was Gruden's last foray as a head coach. Following a disappointing 2008 season that saw Tampa lose all of their games in the final month of the season, Gruden was canned, and hired as a color analyst for Monday Night Football in 2009. He was so bad at this broadcasting job that in 2016 ESPN hired Sean Mcdonough to make Gruden look competent by comparison.

So a man who hasn't coached in ten years, who hasn't made a significant improvement to his team since 1999, and who already has chosen to hire another failed coach (Tom Cable) is somehow worth a 10-year, 100 million dollar contract? I laughed when I heard this, and I'll continue to laugh as Gruden cashes those gigantic checks.

At least he got a no-trade clause this time around.