Week 4 picks

After a rough start, I made some ground last week and am closing in on at least being .500.  Now we have bye weeks, so let's break down what we've learned so far:

Chicago is really good.
Green Bay is not very good.
Dallas isn't as bad as everyone (myself included) thought
Jacksonville is terribad.
So is Miami.
And Cincinnati is amazing.  Like, really, really, really good.

Here are the picks!  Home teams in bold

Washington(-3) over NY Giants.

Whoops.  While the streak of terrible thursday night games is kept alive, the streak of the home team winning is not.  NY looked sharp, and Eli looked good - a rare combo indeed - and Washington looked like, well, what they're supposed to look like with Cousins.  All of Cousins' statistics support that this is the type of QB he is, so I dunno, maybe the din to have him start over RGIII will die down a bit now.

Chicago(+2) over Green Bay

Why the pack are favored here, I do not know.  Green Bay needs this win badly, so they have that going in their favor, but Chicago is simply better then Green Bay.  My only concern with Chicago is their injury situation moving forward.  Losing Tillman for the year, combined with nagging injuries to Marshall and Jeffries is not good.  If Chicago can stay healthy, they are playing like one of the best teams in the NFC.  Green Bay, on the other hand, is not.

Houston(-3) over Buffalo

I still like me the Bills, but they've looked bad at times, and while Houston is on pace to match last years 2-14 mark, I think their defense makes up for them having Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback, and with the game being in Houston, I see the Texans getting the W here.

Indy(-7.5) over Tennessee

I'm not a fan of the line, but Tennessee has shown me no reason to think they can even cover this game.  I don't think Indy is great, but I think the Titans are that bad.

Carolina(+3) over Baltimore

Carolina looked terribad against Pittsburgh last week, but Baltimore isn't very good either, and Steve Smith is full of murder for this game.  Seriously, he had a short fuse his entire career, he's going to straight waterboy someone in this game.

Detroit(-2) over New York Jets

I have no faith in anything the Jets do.  Like, at all.  Take this Detroit defensive line against Geno Smith, and then throw in a helping of Reggie Bush and Calvin Johnson on offensive... yeah, this is going to end badly for the Jets.

Pittsburgh(+7.5) over Tampa Bay

This line is high because of their dismantling of Carolina, but Tampa Bay is soooooo bad that it makes sense.  Pitt is being bit badly with the injury bug like Chicago, but they got some very good play from their subs against Carolina, so they might be able to weather it out after all.

Oakland(+3.5) over Miami

No bold for a home team because this game is in London.  Once again, the NFL plays the international s**tbowl in London, which has become such a time honored tradition.  There's a reason they send bad teams there, they need to get butts in seats to watch them play somehow.  I like Miami - I really do - but this weird Tannehill situation I feel is too much of a distraction for a team that showed last year they're not too good at dealing with distractions.  Derek Carr might have a breakout game this week too, I think he's got a good chance of being the future in Oakland.

San Diego(-13) over Jacksonville

Another huge line, but when you've played like the Jags, you get these lines.  San Diego is looking better and better, and the second coming of Philip Rivers appears to be here.  As long as their season doesn't ride on the health of Ryan Matthews (like it has in may years past) they should play pretty well throughout this year, and be able to blow out the teams they're supposed to - like Jacksonville!

On the other side, I'm glad Gus Bradley went to Bortles as early as he did.  You drafted that kid #6 for a reason.  He's looked good in practice and preseason, and he has some exciting young receivers on the field.  Fix that offensive line, and you have a decent offense.

Atlanta(-3) over Minnesota

Minnesota's win over St. Louis is looking more and more like a fluke, and they're not putting up a fight at all - which pisses me off because I truly believe Teddy Bridgewater is the future there, and the team has already given up.  Ugh.  Atlanta's offense looks great, and they should roll over a tired and distracted Vikings team.

Philadelphia(+5) over San Francisco

Two things really quick - I pick against San Fran every week because I don't think they're any good, and second, NO MATTER HOW BAD THEY PLAY THEY ARE STILL FAVORED!  Why?  This makes no sense.  Philly is super explosive, the Niners are not, and even worse, San Fran has shown vulnerability to big plays AND fast offenses.  Add that into the fact they're trying to throw the ball all day with Kaepernick and not run the ball with their surprisingly good two headed monster of a backfield in Gore and Hyde, and you have the recipe for disaster.  And yet, even after all of that, they are STILL FAVORED.  Ugh.

New Orleans (-3) over Dallas

Dallas has not been as bad as people thought they were going to be this year.  The defense has actually looked good, and Jason Garret FINALLY realized running the ball instead of throwing it 50 times with Romo is a better way to play offense.  Seriously, I've been complaining about this for years with Garret.  Back when Wade Phillips was the coach, he was calling the offense when Owens was in town, and they had this (at the time) great tandem at running back with Marion Barber and Julius Jones.  What they did to teams when they ran the ball simply wasn't fair, and yet they still threw the ball more then they ran at almost a 2:1 ratio.  When they hired him as the head coach, I laughed because of that fact, and then everyone was shocked when he did THE EXACT SAME THING HE DID AS AN OFFENSIVE COORDINATOR.  I'm pretty sure the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting different results.  This year Dallas is playing smart, simple defense, running the ball, and besides week one, protecting the ball.  They're not terrible, but I still don't think they're any good.

The Saints have Drew Brees, and Dallas has corners who pout and storm out of meetings.  That doesn't sound like a good combo for Dallas.

Kansas City(+3) over New England

This pick is more about what I think about the Patriots then it is Kansas City, and New England has simply not looked good this year.  They have a long way to go to get to where they need to be, but I don't think they do it in Kansas City.  The only thing New England has going for them in this game is the fact that Andy Reid is on the opposite sideline, and if this game comes down to one final possession, then New England will win as Reid will inevitably do what Andy Reid does best and show us the worst clock management in football.

Last Week:      8-7-1
Overall:           21-25-2

Week three picks!

I kinda hate talking about football!  I'm mad at myself for loving the game!  But it's like crack!  I can't stop.

I... can't.... stop....

Here are the picks, home team in bold.  Hopefully I'll do better then last week.

Atlanta(-6.5) over Tampa Bay

I'm shocked this line wasn't higher, the only game Tampa has been in was against St. Louis, and they still didn't look good in that one.  Obviously the results seem obvious now, but don't be surprised if Tampa pulls out another 0-16 season, which I think would make them the only team in history to do that twice.

Buffalo(+2) over San Diego

Buffalo has all the karma and mojo in the world going their way, they're not moving to Canada, the best player in Bills history who isn't a murderer is cancer free, and they have exciting, young players.  San Diego is going to be riding high after the win over Seattle, and I think they'll look past Buffalo.  I'll be shocked if Buffalo loses this game.

Dallas(-1.5) over St. Louis

As bad as Dallas was in week one, I thought their defense actually looked pretty good against San Francisco.  They did hold them scoreless in the second half.  St. Louis got stomped at home by the horrible Vikings, and barely beat Tampa Bay.  I expect a bad Dallas team to easily win this one.

Philadelphia(-6) over Washington

I think Cousins fits the Redskins scheme better then Griffin, and when your head coach doesn't seem bothered that the starting QB is out for a while, you know he thinks the same thing.  However, this is the NFC East, and everyone there blows, but I think Philly wins and covers simply because of their crazy speed offense.  I'm not expecting Washington to get 10 sacks again either.

Houston(-1.5) over New York Giants

Bwahahahaha, this Houston defense is going to eat Eli Manning alive.  I know this line is this low because of Ryan Fitzpatrick, but c'mon, this is silly.

Minnesota(+10) over New Orleans

I think the Saints will win here, but their defense is pretty bad, so I don't see them covering. This might be the last we see of Matt Cassel before Teddy Bridgewater comes in and becomes their franchise quarterback.

Seriously, I loved the Bridgewater pick for Minnesota in the draft.  I think he's the real deal, and I think he will be a very good quarterback in the league for many years.  Big fan of Bridgewater.

Cincinnati(-7) over Tennessee

Cincinnati is slowly turning into Seahawks light.  Their defense is playing phenomenally, Dalton is playing smart, and they have a great running game.  They'll dominate in the AFC this season, since the AFC is, well, NFL light.

Cleveland(+2) over Baltimore

Cleveland is 1-1, but they've played great in both those games.  Welcome Baltimore, playing their first road game of the season, and coming to a pretty rabid fanbase.  There will be a few Ray Rice signs in the stands, that's for sure.  I don't see Baltimore playing better then Cleveland here, I'm pretty sure the Browns will win this one straight up.

Green Bay(+2.5) over Detroit

Rodgers is better then Stafford.  Yeah, Megatron is better then, well, everybody, but I don't think the Lions will be able to either stop Rodgers, or keep up with him.  The NFC North is up for the taking - unless Chicago grabs it by the haunches - so I don't really trust any of these teams.  But I do think the Pack is better then Detroit, even in Detroit.

Indianapolis(-7) over Jacksonville

I don't like this line because of how Indianapolis has been playing, but Jacksonville is really bad.  They need to go ahead and start the Blake Bortles era to give the fans something to cheer for.  I expect Indy to win, but I really don't know if they'll cover.

Oakland(+14.5) over New England

Oakland is bad - worse then I thought they'd be - but this is too many points to not take.  New England is going to win this game, but they're not the New England of old either.  I'll take the points here.

Arizona(+3) over San Francisco

San Francisco, coming off of a bad home loss and a weird win over Dallas, heads to the first place(!) Cardinals and are FAVORED?!?!  Yeah, this is one that is simply wrong.  Kaepernick clearly shows he wants to give the other team the ball as much as possible, a problem normally showcased by Carson Palmer on Arizona.  Arizona plays defense the way San Fran wants too, but I just can't see the Niners winning this one on the road.

Seattle(-4.5) over Denver

Seattle is rarely on primetime in Seattle because the league doesn't like how badly they beat their opponents.  Seattle beats the crap out people at the clink.  Denver is no exception.  One thing I am very concerned about in this game is the return of Wes Welker - not for his ability as a receiver, but for his ability to stay on the field.  Welker is becoming more and more concussion prone, and he is fearless across the middle of the field.  That is a bad combo, and with how hard Seattle hits - especially over the middle - I worry for his health.  I like Welker, I wish him the best, but I'm worried something bad will happen to him in this game, and if not on Sunday, then this season.  I hope I'm wrong, but I don't think I am.

Miami(-3.5) over Kansas City

Miami is playing really well.  The loss of Moreno hurts - badly - but Kansas City is without Jamal Charles (I think - he's been listed as a game time decision) and if he doesn't play that really evens out the playing field, and when both teams are without their best backs, I'll go to the home team every time.

Carolina(-3) over Pittsburgh

Pittsburgh is really bad.  Like, really, really, REALLY bad.  And I don't think people realize that.  I think people see the name Pittsburgh and they just assume "Oh, they're always good, they'll continue being good."  Not this year.  It's also starting to look like the pick of Carolina as a team plummeting back to earth after last year is going to be wrong as well.  This is a primetime game with Cam Newton, and I think he'll put on a show.

Bears(+2.5) over New York Jets

The Bears just beat favored San Francisco on the road, and now they go on the road to the much worse New York Jets, and are still underdogs?  They're winning this one, I'm sorry.

Last Week:  5-11
Overall:       13-18-1

What the hell is wrong with Jameis Winston?

With what will probably be the worst week in the history of the NFL over, we're seeing teams (except San Francisco) do the right thing in regards to how they treat their players who have done terrible things.  After Carolina and Minnesota put their respective players on the exempt list (and I really don't know what that is), Arizona Cardinals running back Jonathan Dwyer was charged with a myriad of assault charges stemming from a July incident in his home, and Arizona didn't hesitate and placed him on the exempt list as well.  Sure, it took a massive change in the court of public opinion to cause this quick decision by Arizona, but at least they are doing the right thing now.  It remains to be seen what happens with Ray McDonald in San Francisco, as it is clear that both Jim Harbaugh and San Fran's ownership were only paying lip service to their statements that these domestic violence cases need to be handled harshly.  Yeah, I don't like San Francisco, at all, but seeing them as such big hypocrites and basically spitting in the face of the NFL's biggest scandal in years just makes my hatred of them all the more justified.

But I'm not here today to talk about the NFL, though that wall of text above may beg to differ.

Today, I'm talking about the massive troubles with Jameis Winston, especially in light of everything happening in the NFL today.

Sometime on September 17th, Winston jumped up on a table in the student union building at Florida State and yelled out - I'm quoting here - "Fuck her in the pussy!"  Apparently this is a new internet meme of which I am not familiar with.  Why he decided to do this, I don't know.  While this incident on its own is very stupid, it is by no means a sign of a massive character flaw...

...until you take into account his previous issues, and his reaction to them.

This all starts back in November of 2013, when Winston was accused of sexual assault stemming from a December 2012 incident.  While no charges were filed, massive discrepancies and missteps taken by the Tallahassee Police Department in the investigation were later revealed, and it seems very clear that the police handled this terribly and possibly even looked the other way to help out the star quarterback.

Having plead his innocence throughout the entire investigation, the case was closed on December 5 2013 with no charges filed.  Instead of acting contrite and thankful, Winston went the route of "I told you so" and acted very entitled to this result, preaching his innocence to the world.  It should be noted that even the most rudimentary amount of legal knowledge reveals that no charges being filed means nothing about innocence or guilt.  It simply means the state didn't think they would win in court - or they didn't want to prosecute him.

This issue then faded, seemingly resolved, when Winston then decided it would be a good idea to steal crab from a public market in April of 2014. 

What?

He claimed he "forgot" to pay for them, but there is video of this incident, and it is very clear that he took them intentionally.  He was given an adult civil citation, and again appeared at a press conference where he didn't apologize, tried to rationalize his actions, and smiled a lot.  This is his MO when he gets in trouble.  Hunt down his press conferences and listen to him.  He acts entitled - because he's treated that way - and never takes responsibility for his actions.  Hell, ESPN keeps running an interview with Winston where he talks about how he IS a role model and wants to be one.  He thinks kids should look up to him.  This is the mindset of an entitled kid who has been coddled by his coaches, his team, and his University.

Now this latest incident happens, and with this chain of events, it is very clear that we have a pattern of behavior, and not some isolated incidents.  (By the way, there are other incidents that happened where no charges were filed, like stealing soda from a Burger King)  Florida State has looked at all of these incidents as they occurred, and his total punishment from the University for all of this is....

Three baseball games, and the first half of this upcoming game against Clemson.

That's a great way to get the point across.

Florida State is coddling this guy and refuses to punish him solely based on his football ability.  With everything happening in the NFL right now with player conduct, I find it shocking that a university wouldn't take a hard line... until I thought about it a bit more.

With the Ray Rice/Ray McDonald/Greg Hardy/Adrian Peterson situations, most people have been screaming at the NFL to address these problems, not individual teams.  The same does not happen in the NCAA, because the NCAA is basically owned by the power conferences.  Don't believe me?  Read this and tell me they're not in the pocket of the power conferences.   So the NCAA won't push around any big schools, but they have no problem dropping random sanctions on other players who don't have the power of a strong university behind them.  If Winston played for some other school in Florida, say, FIU, he would not be playing at all right now.  I believe that with every fiber of my being. 

But I'm not writing this to talk about the problems with the NCAA, I'm here writing about Winston.  The fact that he though this latest incident was a good idea on any level is a massive red flag to all 32 NFL teams.  They see this stupid, stupid kid and everything he keeps doing and they say to themselves "Gee, if he does this in college, why would he not do this in the pros with millions of dollars at his disposal?"  Given the state of the NFL's public image currently, I have a hard time seeing teams using a high draft pick on a guy who will more then likely get suspended multiple times by the league.  These incidents are a pattern of behavior, not coincidence.

Football is apparently played.

Today marks the day when I would normally make my picks for the weekend - at least, that was my goal to continue last week.

As I'm sure everyone is aware of now, the news cycle this past week was dominated by the NFL for very non football things.  Not only is the video of Ray Rice abhorrent, it is appearing more then likely that the NFL saw the video released on Monday and still decided on the two game suspension for Rice.  It wasn't until the video was released to the public that they decided to change their decision, and only because they lost public opinion.  As more news pours out regarding the handling of this case, it has created a call for Roger Goodell to step down in light of his handling of this situation and other egregious charges.

This is all known, and mostly agreed upon by sensible people of the world.  Believe it or not, as much as I am not a Goodell fan, the NFL handling this the way they did doesn't start with him.  I present to you the curious case of Leonard Little.

In 1998, Leonard Little was suspended for 8 games.  Since this predated things like TMZ, and hell, the internet news cycle completely, the reason for it got swept under the rug.

Leonard Little killed a woman.

He was convicted of killing Susan Gutweiler while driving drunk.  He was convicted of manslaughter and received 4 years probation.  Less then six months after this conviction, Little was back on the field for the St. Louis Rams, and played another decade in the league.  During that time, he won two NFC championships, was named to the All Pro team, and won a Super Bowl.

He also won the Ed Block Courage Award in 2005.  This isn't the man of the year award, thank god, but it is still a prestigious award given to the player who "exemplifies commitment to the principles of sportsmanship and courage."

Earlier that year he received his second DUI and was sentenced to two years probation.  He was not suspended.

While Goodell definitely handled this entire situation completely wrong in every single sense, this isn't the first time this has happened in this league, it's just that now we're able to actually have all the information on the event in question.  If Leonard Little killed Susan Gutweiler today, things would be very different then they would have in over 15 years ago.  And for those of you who don't know, Goodell was not commissioner of the league when Little did this.

Here are my week 2 picks.  Home Team in Bold

Baltimore (-3) over Pittsburgh
Miami (even) over Buffalo
Washington (-6) over Jacksonville
Tennessee (-3.5) over Dallas
Arizona (-2.5) over NY Giants
Minnesota (+3) over New England
New Orleans (-6.5) over Cleveland
Atlanta (+6) over Cincinnatti
Detroit (+2.5) over Carolina
Tampa Bay (-6) over St. Louis
Seattle (-6) over San Diego
Houston (-3) over Oakland
Green Bay (-8) over NY Jets
Denver (-11.5) over Kansas City
Bears (+7) over San Francisco
Indianapolis (-3) over Philadeplhia



Last week:  8-7-1
Overall:      8-7-1

Week one picks!

Whoooo!  Here's to trying to do this every week regardless of how many times my kid attacks the keyboard!  Whenever I have bet on NFL games, I have done well, so here's a grand experiment to see how good of a handicapper I actually am.

Without further ado, here we a-go.

Home team in bold

Seattle(-4.5) over Green Bay

Yes, this game already happened, and yes, I picked them.  But I'll be damned if I'm going to pick the games for the week on a damn Wednesday.  I hate Thursday night football that isn't the season opener or on Thanksgiving.  Heading into this game I was concerned about Seattle's O line and Green Bay's defensive line, and after seeing the game my Seattle concern doesn't exist, and my Green Bay one is now amplified, and now you add in their shaky O line!  Huzzah!

New Orleans(-3) over Atlanta

I think Atlanta will bounce back from the abysmal year they had last year, but I don't see them beating the Saints.  I think Atlanta's secondary will be improved and if Julio Jones stays healthy, they should be solid in the NFC South.  But New Orleans is going to go 11-5 or better, and it starts in week 1)

Minnesota(+3) over St. Louis

Minnesota is going to be very good this year once they start Bridgewater.  Cassel is going to be destroyed by this St. Louis D line, but Peterson will go off.  St. Louis is going to be really really bad this year, and I'm shocked they're favored in this game.  This will probably be the only time that happens this year, unless Vegas did this intentionally to lull us into a sense of false security...

Cleveland(+7) over Pittsburgh

Big hater of the Steelers dating back to Superbowl XL, but they're old and not that talented anymore.  I thought Hoyer did great in Cleveland last year before he got hurt, and I think this line is more related to the "Oh, it's Pittsburgh and Cleveland, Pitt will totally win" factor that was true about five years ago.  Once again, Vegas could be trying to be tricky here.

Jacksonville(+11.5) over Philadelphia

No one in the NFC East is any good, and this line is too high to not jump on.  I honestly think Jacksonville can win this game outright, Bortles has looked more then worthy of the pick Jax used on him in the draft this year.  I don't believe he's slated to start, but he will very very soon.  Philly is fun to watch, but don't have a lot of substance outside of LeSean McCoy.  I think this game will be surprisingly good.

Oakland(+5) over NY Jets

Bwahahahahaha!  The Jets are favored!  Bwahahahahahaha!

Cincinatti(Even) over Baltimore

Baltimore is going to be really bad this year.  Cincy isn't great, but this game is a push for a reason.  Whatever advantage Baltimore has in being the home team isn't much, but Cincy isn't a crazy good team rolling into town.  The Bengals should win the division, and this will be a good start to their season.

Chicago(-7) over Buffalo

I'm not a huge fan of the size of this spread, but while my heart likes Buffalo, my head does not, and Chicago should be really good this year.  Trestman has these boys rolling, and it wouldn't shock me for Chicago to blow out Buffalo in the first half and sit their starters by the time the 4th rolls around.

Houston(-3) over Washington

Houston will be bouncing back this year, and Washington is falling.  The Griffin/Cousins talk will swing into high gear after this game.  And something crazy will happen in the game, like DeSean Jackson will get shot by a rival gang or something.  Someone important on Washington will get hurt, for some strange reason the stars seemed aligned for this to happen, I can't justify it anymore then that.

Kansas City(-3) over Tennessee

I like Tennessee, but while Kansas City will fall back to earth this year they will still be a little better then Tennessee, who I expect to have a horrendous passing game this year (sorry Locker).  Kansas City is without Dwayne Bowe in this one, and that could be the factor to swing the game in the Titan's favor, but I just see a better team in KC then I do in Tennessee.

New England(-4) over Miami

Miami is going to contend for the playoffs this year, but I believe they're still another year away from contending with the Pats in the division.  Brady will be Tom Brady and do Tom Brady things, and that will be more then enough to win and cover on the road in Miami.

Carolina(+2.5) over Tampa Bay

I agree with most talking heads in that Carolina is going to fall, but I disagree in the rise of Tampa Bay.  I think Atlanta is slated for more of a comeback then the Bucs, but Newton is nursing that broken rib which will impact him greatly.  I remember when Matt Hasselbeck had a broken rib way back in the day, and it bothered him every single day.  When an injury makes it painful to breathe, you know it's going to impact the play on the field.  That being said, I think Carolina is just a better team then Tampa Bay, and even with a diminished Newton, they should still be able to beat a mediocre Tampa team.

Dallas(+4) over San Francisco

Yes, Dallas's defense is going to be historically bad this year, but San Fran's offense has looked TERRIBLE this preseason.  I don't think either will click in this game, though SF has a better chance to get their O rolling this week then Dallas does with their D.  If Romo can stay upright and not get hit, he should be able to get very good offensive production from that receiver corps, and with them being home dogs, I dunno, I like this pick to go Dallas's way, and make me very, very happy.

Denver(-8) over Indianapolis

I think Indy is going to be bad this year.  Denver is going to be very similar to what they were last year, and that combination doesn't make me too scared of this line.

Detroit(-6) over New York Giants

The Giants are going to be really bad.  Detroit is going to finish fairly mediocre because they play in the NFC, but they should still be worlds better then the Giants.  And NY is on the road, with Eli Manning against some very talented defensive players.  This can very well be a laugher early.

San Diego(+3) over Arizona

I think San Diego has a great chance to repeat their success from last year, and Arizona still is using Carson Palmer.  The second Monday night game on opening week ALWAYS sucks, and this game should be no exception.  Rivers will go off against the depleted Arizona D.

Huzzah!  There are the picks!  So far I'm 1-0!  Whoooooooo!
 

The 2014 NFL preseason blog!

F**k yeah!

Whoohoo!  Football is almost here!  Which means it's time again for me to do what no one is asking and make my season predictions.  And like everyone else who does this thing, I have no credibility whatsoever is making these claims!  Huzzah!

I got this part right!

Last year I did alright.  I had Houston in the Super Bowl (oof) but I did pick Seattle to win it, and got the MVP correct.  With a batting average of around .200, I'm good enough to do this professionally.

Let us start in the AFC

AFC East
They may as well rename this the Patriot's division to lose.  10 of the last 11 AFC East titles have gone to New England, and the other teams are just... so bad.  The Jets did not get better, and their secondary is either injured or rookies.  They are going to get burned bad on the back end.  I like the Watkins pick in Buffalo, but feel like they're going to give up too many points to overcome.  Miami looks better every year, and while I think Tannehill is not the answer there, he may be good enough to get this team into the playoffs in the super weak AFC.

1.  New England
2.  Miami
3.  NY Jets
4.  Buffalo

"Owwwww..."

AFC North
How the mighty have fallen.  Following their super bowl victory, the Ravens got rid of everybody except Flacco, and that hasn't worked out too well.  Pittsburgh is continuing their tailspin, Cleveland is, well, Cleveland, and Cincinatti is the cream of the crap here, they should get to 10 wins easily and walk away with this division.

1.  Cincinatti
2.  Pittsburgh
3.  Baltimore
4.  Cleveland

Cue soulless death stare in 3...

AFC South
More crap!  Noticing a theme yet in the AFC?  The Colts could trot out their practice squad and win this division.  Jacksonville is still in the middle of their massive rebuilding project and are hoping they finally found their quarterback of the future in Blake Bortles.  Meanwhile, Tennessee still doesn't know who they have in Locker, and I honestly don't know who is starting in Houston.  Houtson's fall last year was a crazy anomaly, so they should bounce back to mediocrity, but not the playoffs.  While there isn't much good going on in Tennessee right now, watch Bishop Sankey, he's slowly getting a lot of love as a front runner for ROY, and with his motor and play style he has a very real chance at it.  Until teams realize it and load the box and force Locker to beat them.

1.  Indianapolis
2.  Houston
3.  Jacksonville
4.  Tennessee

Sankey is the bright spot Tennessee.  Remember that.

AFC West
The Chiefs took advantage of a last place schedule last year to have a remarkable year and win close game after close game.  This year they'll come back to earth, and could make the playoffs in a super weak AFC.  They're probably going to finish third here behind Denver and San Diego, so they will need to play exceptionally well out of conference.  We have no idea if we'll get good or bad Rivers this year, but good Rivers can easily take this San Diego team to 10 wins in the weak AFC.  Denver is slated to roll again, though the losses of Eric Decker and Wes Welker (for at leas 4 games anyways) will hurt the offensive production and someone could sneak up on them.early, even though three of their first four are at home (and a road game in Seattle.  Have fun with that).  Oh, Oakland is here too.  And starting a rookie QB.  They're going to be... well, a football team, technically, but that's about it.

1.  Denver
2.  San Diego
3.  Kansas City
4.  Oakland

He was thatclose.  Nah, I saw that game.  It was never close.

NFC East
While the AFC is noticeably weaker then the NFC, the NFC East is noticeably weaker then the AFC.  This division is BAD.  Philly will be exciting with their crazy Chip Kelly offense, but it kills their defense and wears down their offense throughout the course of the season.  Nick Foles and Lesean McCoy will have massive fantasy years which will win Philadelphia the division, just to have them lose in round one to a wild card opponent.  The Giants are a train wreck, the Washington He-who-shall-not-be-nameds are relying on a shaky RGIII, and Dallas is trying to work with a 34 year old Tony Romo coming off of back surgery.  And Dallas lost all of their key playmakers on defense.  And they're coached by Jason Garrett.  And Jerry Jones will still make more money then any other owner because, hey, they're the Cowboys.  History tells us that Dallas will finish 8-8 and miss the playoffs, but they'll be lucky to win 8 games this year with this roster.

1.  Philadelphia
2.  New York
3.  Washington
4.  Dallas

More sad times.  Bonus points if you remember this game.

NFC North
Green Bay is very vulnerable as the favorites in this division, and all four teams could easily win this.  I'm a huge believer in Teddy Bridgewater and feel like he was the best pick of the 2014 draft.  He's coming into a great situation in Minnesota offensively and should be able to lead that team to at least 8 wins while All Day carries the load.  Of course, this is assuming Minnesota realizes they actually drafted him and he might have a bit higher ceiling then Matt Cassel.  Detroit is always scary with Stat Padford at quarterback and Megatron going deep.  Reggie Bush was an amazing addition for last season and it showed.  Their defense has been underplaying, if they play to their ability they should be a good unit.  Chicago has a typical Chicago style D, plus a fantastic passing game with Cutler throwing it to Marshall and Jeffries.  Trestman has got Chicago moving in the right direction, and they should be able to unseat Green Bay, who have major losses on both lines this year, and will struggle against any high flying offense.  But Green Bay does have Eddie Lacy, and he is damn good.  Chicago has Matt Forte, and he gives Chicago the edge in what should be a hard fought division all year.

1.  Chicago
2.  Green Bay
3.  Detroit
4.  Minnesota

This guy catches everything, and he's their #2 receiver.

NFC South
Year in and year out, the NFC South has been the most unpredictable division in football.  Last place finishes first the next year, while the winner becomes the cellar dweller.  Unless you're Tampa Bay, and you just get cozy in the root cellar.  Both Atlanta and Carolina are coming off of flukey years, with Atlanta's crazy injury bug sure to not repeat itself, and Carolina under the guidance of "Riverboat Ron" likely to lose their many gambles this year as opposed to last.  New Orleans is the steady ship here, and should do amazing things with the upgrades on defense, and Drew Brees being, well, Drew Brees.  Tampa is becoming a popular dark horse pick, but I don't like them at all and feel like they still have some more rebuilding to do before they can climb to the top in this division.

1.  New Orleans
2.  Atlanta
3.  Carolina
4.  Tampa Bay

It's not a good sign when google recommends "Cam Newton Sulking"

NFC West
Home of the champs, land of the ass kickings!  Seattle is in great shape to possibly repeat, with their only challenge being that they play in the NFC.  The NFC is loaded and will surely make for a tough path back to the Superbowl, but Seattle is a tough hard-nosed team who plays amazing defense, can run the ball down your throat, and Russel Wilson is getting better and better.  I compared Wilson once to Steve Young in his play style and ability, and I still feel the comparison is accurate.  Only difference is Wilson will probably get more titles then Young.  San Francisco is normally the main challenger to Seattle, but combined with a slew of injuries and way too many off the field incidents resulting in the most arrests in the league the last few years, they look ready to fall.  Couple that with Alex Boone not being happy there at all makes for a shaky team on and off the field, and you can't win with that.  Also I think Kaepernick is a tool, so I don't want to see them succeed.  I'm totally not biased here.  St. Louis was looking promising as a possible wild card team, but Bradford's injury coupled with their refusal to move away from him as their QB has doomed them to yet another year of mediocrity.  They will play spoiler though, if for nothing else then their defensive line.  There's a reason they cut Michael Sam after that great preseason.  They don't need him.  Arizona is one of the oldest teams in the league, and while they have stars to help them out, they are led by the 34 year old Carson Palmer who will be going against the NFC West 6 times this year.  That is not a good combination.  What has been the best division in football the last two years might not be anymore as these teams will falter.  Besides Seattle of course.

1.  Seattle
2.  Arizona
3.  San Francisco
4.  St. Louis

Don't worry Kaep, it's just the tip.

Playoffs
AFC Seeding
1.  Denver
2.  New England
3.  Indianapolis
4.  Cincinatti
5.  San Diego
6.  Miami

NFC Seeding
1.  Seattle
2.  New Orleans
3.  Chicago
4.  Philadelphia
5.  Green Bay
6.  Atlanta

Round 1
Byes - Denver, New England, Seattle, New Orleans
Indianapolis over Miami, San Diego over Cincinatti
Chicago over Atlanta, Green Bay over Philadelphia

Round 2
Denver over San Diego, Indianapolis over New England
Seattle over Green Bay, Chicago over New Orleans

AFC Championship
Denver over Indianapolis

NFC Championship
Seattle over Chicago

Super Bowl XXXIX
Seattle over Denver, because we've seen this before.

"We need more blue and green confetti!"

I hate to pick the same Superbowl as last year, but the cards are right for it to happen again.  Denver will have to adjust for not having some key pass catchers, while Seattle must do the same with their reshuffled defensive line.  But if they do meet again, it means that both teams figured out how to overcome that... and Seattle has proven they are way better then Denver.  Onto yearly awards!

MVP
I think the loss of Welker and Decker will hurt Manning in the early go, which should enable Drew Brees to put up better numbers, giving Brees the MVP.  Adrian Peterson can always go Adrian Peterson on everyone too and walk away with it, but my money is on Brees.

Here's your MVP.  And my wife thinks he's hot, so he's got that going for him too.

Defensive Player of the year
Great defenders on the same team tend to take votes away from each other.  I want to pick Earl Thomas, but know that he will split votes with Richard Sherman.  My money is on Robert Quinn, the stud defensive end in St. Louis who could very well break the single season sack record.  And hopefully on a legitimate sack.  I'm looking at you Mr. Favre...

Expect to see this.  A lot.

Coach of the Year
Has to be Marc Trestman.  He is doing amazing things in Chicago and I think he will finally be rewarded for it.  Carrol will be in the running for this too, as well as Mike McCoy if San Diego plays as well as I think they can.

Comeback player of the year
Got to be Julio Jones.  He is an amazing player, and as long as he doesn't get hurt again should put up some astounding numbers.  Aaron Rodgers is also a choice here, but as he didn't miss the whole season I think the nod will go to Jones

Come back Julio

Offensive Rookie of the Year
Bishop Sankey.  He's going to get a lot of love in Tennessee, and they will be forced to use him often.  Expect a monster year from him.  As in pick him up for your fantasy team.  Seriously.

Defensive Rookie of the Year
Jadeveon Clowney gets all the PR, and if he plays alongside J.J. Watt and is as disruptive as him, this will be a cake walk.  Expect this to go to a linebacker if not Clowney, the tackle numbers a middle linebacker puts up in any system are always astronomical, and to a surprisingly large amount of people that stat matters more then anything else.   Having said that, Khalil Mack should be a monster anyways, though watch out for C.J. Mosley in Baltimore.  My gut tells me Clowney, with Mack as the number two in votes.

Hard to pick Clowney or Mack, I might waffle some more on this.

Dark Horse
Last year I picked Jacksonville here.  That wasn't too smart.  This year I'm thinking the Fins.  Miami has slowly been getting better the last few years, and they have the weapons to compete in the AFC, and the only real opponent in their division is New England, so watch out for Miami to be a competitor this year.

I know it's not their current logo, but I like this one better.