Week one picks!

Whoooo!  Here's to trying to do this every week regardless of how many times my kid attacks the keyboard!  Whenever I have bet on NFL games, I have done well, so here's a grand experiment to see how good of a handicapper I actually am.

Without further ado, here we a-go.

Home team in bold

Seattle(-4.5) over Green Bay

Yes, this game already happened, and yes, I picked them.  But I'll be damned if I'm going to pick the games for the week on a damn Wednesday.  I hate Thursday night football that isn't the season opener or on Thanksgiving.  Heading into this game I was concerned about Seattle's O line and Green Bay's defensive line, and after seeing the game my Seattle concern doesn't exist, and my Green Bay one is now amplified, and now you add in their shaky O line!  Huzzah!

New Orleans(-3) over Atlanta

I think Atlanta will bounce back from the abysmal year they had last year, but I don't see them beating the Saints.  I think Atlanta's secondary will be improved and if Julio Jones stays healthy, they should be solid in the NFC South.  But New Orleans is going to go 11-5 or better, and it starts in week 1)

Minnesota(+3) over St. Louis

Minnesota is going to be very good this year once they start Bridgewater.  Cassel is going to be destroyed by this St. Louis D line, but Peterson will go off.  St. Louis is going to be really really bad this year, and I'm shocked they're favored in this game.  This will probably be the only time that happens this year, unless Vegas did this intentionally to lull us into a sense of false security...

Cleveland(+7) over Pittsburgh

Big hater of the Steelers dating back to Superbowl XL, but they're old and not that talented anymore.  I thought Hoyer did great in Cleveland last year before he got hurt, and I think this line is more related to the "Oh, it's Pittsburgh and Cleveland, Pitt will totally win" factor that was true about five years ago.  Once again, Vegas could be trying to be tricky here.

Jacksonville(+11.5) over Philadelphia

No one in the NFC East is any good, and this line is too high to not jump on.  I honestly think Jacksonville can win this game outright, Bortles has looked more then worthy of the pick Jax used on him in the draft this year.  I don't believe he's slated to start, but he will very very soon.  Philly is fun to watch, but don't have a lot of substance outside of LeSean McCoy.  I think this game will be surprisingly good.

Oakland(+5) over NY Jets

Bwahahahahaha!  The Jets are favored!  Bwahahahahahaha!

Cincinatti(Even) over Baltimore

Baltimore is going to be really bad this year.  Cincy isn't great, but this game is a push for a reason.  Whatever advantage Baltimore has in being the home team isn't much, but Cincy isn't a crazy good team rolling into town.  The Bengals should win the division, and this will be a good start to their season.

Chicago(-7) over Buffalo

I'm not a huge fan of the size of this spread, but while my heart likes Buffalo, my head does not, and Chicago should be really good this year.  Trestman has these boys rolling, and it wouldn't shock me for Chicago to blow out Buffalo in the first half and sit their starters by the time the 4th rolls around.

Houston(-3) over Washington

Houston will be bouncing back this year, and Washington is falling.  The Griffin/Cousins talk will swing into high gear after this game.  And something crazy will happen in the game, like DeSean Jackson will get shot by a rival gang or something.  Someone important on Washington will get hurt, for some strange reason the stars seemed aligned for this to happen, I can't justify it anymore then that.

Kansas City(-3) over Tennessee

I like Tennessee, but while Kansas City will fall back to earth this year they will still be a little better then Tennessee, who I expect to have a horrendous passing game this year (sorry Locker).  Kansas City is without Dwayne Bowe in this one, and that could be the factor to swing the game in the Titan's favor, but I just see a better team in KC then I do in Tennessee.

New England(-4) over Miami

Miami is going to contend for the playoffs this year, but I believe they're still another year away from contending with the Pats in the division.  Brady will be Tom Brady and do Tom Brady things, and that will be more then enough to win and cover on the road in Miami.

Carolina(+2.5) over Tampa Bay

I agree with most talking heads in that Carolina is going to fall, but I disagree in the rise of Tampa Bay.  I think Atlanta is slated for more of a comeback then the Bucs, but Newton is nursing that broken rib which will impact him greatly.  I remember when Matt Hasselbeck had a broken rib way back in the day, and it bothered him every single day.  When an injury makes it painful to breathe, you know it's going to impact the play on the field.  That being said, I think Carolina is just a better team then Tampa Bay, and even with a diminished Newton, they should still be able to beat a mediocre Tampa team.

Dallas(+4) over San Francisco

Yes, Dallas's defense is going to be historically bad this year, but San Fran's offense has looked TERRIBLE this preseason.  I don't think either will click in this game, though SF has a better chance to get their O rolling this week then Dallas does with their D.  If Romo can stay upright and not get hit, he should be able to get very good offensive production from that receiver corps, and with them being home dogs, I dunno, I like this pick to go Dallas's way, and make me very, very happy.

Denver(-8) over Indianapolis

I think Indy is going to be bad this year.  Denver is going to be very similar to what they were last year, and that combination doesn't make me too scared of this line.

Detroit(-6) over New York Giants

The Giants are going to be really bad.  Detroit is going to finish fairly mediocre because they play in the NFC, but they should still be worlds better then the Giants.  And NY is on the road, with Eli Manning against some very talented defensive players.  This can very well be a laugher early.

San Diego(+3) over Arizona

I think San Diego has a great chance to repeat their success from last year, and Arizona still is using Carson Palmer.  The second Monday night game on opening week ALWAYS sucks, and this game should be no exception.  Rivers will go off against the depleted Arizona D.

Huzzah!  There are the picks!  So far I'm 1-0!  Whoooooooo!